Agent's Take: Derrick Henry's historic workload and what it means moving forward for Titans' superstar

The Titans appear intent on getting their cash’s worth from running back Derrick Henry, who signed a four-year, $50 million agreement (with an extra $1 million in rewards) in 2015. The volume has actually been shown up on Henry’s currently heavy work. In 2020, Henry ended up being the NFL’s 8th gamer to hurry for a minimum of 2,000 backyards in a season, rumbling for 2,027 on 378 brings — connected for 19th-most for a season.

The 2020 NFL Offensive Player of the Year quickly leads the league with 142 brings and 640 hurrying backyards through 5 video games this season. Saints running back Alvin Kamara, who is 2nd in the NFL, has 48 less brings. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt type probably the league’s finest hurrying tandem with the Browns. They have simply 3 more brings integrated at 145 than Henry does this season.

Only O.J Simpson has more hurrying efforts through the very first 5 video games of a season. Simpson had 152 brings with the Bills in 1975. Nobody has actually ever had more touches (integrated hurrying efforts and receptions) than Henry’s 156 in the very first 5 video games.

Thanks to the addition of a 17th regular-season video game, Henry is on track to eliminate the NFL single-season record for hurrying efforts that Larry Johnson set with the Chiefs in 2006 when he had 416 brings. Henry’s present rate tasks to an eye-popping 483 hurrying efforts. At 28.4 brings each contest, Johnson’s record would fall in the 15th video game of the season.

In the procedure, Henry would break Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 hurrying backyards in a season, which he embeded in 1984 with the Rams and Chris Johnson’s season mark of 2,509 backyards from skirmish (combined hurrying and getting backyards) developed in 2009 while betting the Titans. Henry is on rate for 2,176 hurrying backyards and 2,601 backyards from skirmish. His 530 touches would likewise be 42 more than James Wilder’s record of 492, which featured the Buccaneers in 1984.

Henry sustaining his enormous work appears abstruse considering his 2020 use, the additional video game and the NFL progressively ending up being pass pleased over the last ten years. Titans head coach Mike Vrabel attended to Henry’s severe use on Monday. “We just have to try to be as smart as we can with recovery and how it is going in the game and how he feels,” stated Vrabel. “Then there’s a fine line there in knowing what he needs and the impact he has throughout the course of the game.”

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Ideally, Henry’s use rate will mirror what occurred with Simpson in 1975. He went from 30.4 brings per video game over the very first 5 contests to balancing 19.7 for the staying 9 video games in the season.

That wasn’t the case for the two-time safeguarding hurrying champ in 2019 and 2020.

Henry’s work peaked throughout the last quarter of the season. In the very first three-quarters of these 2 years, Henry balanced 21 brings per video game. The typical leapt to 25.4 hurrying efforts in the last 4 video games of the 2 seasons.

Best thing for Henry would be the Titans, who are the only group in the AFC South with a winning record at 3-2, clinching the department early. The Colts, who are 1-4, are the only group to present a reasonable risk to the Titans duplicating as AFC South champs.

If those 2 seasons are any indicator, Henry getting to 400 brings appears unavoidable offered he stays healthy. Henry has actually been exceptionally long lasting when winning his hurrying titles. His just missed out on video game remained in Week 16 of the 2019 season with a hamstring injury.

Henry will sign up with unusual business with a 400-carry season. It’s just been done 5 times in NFL history. The chart listed below sums up the professions of the gamers prior to and after striking the 400-carry mark.

Carries

1,000-yd seasons

Carries

1,000-yd seasons

Player

Year

Carries

Age

Weight

Before

Before

After

After

Larry Johnson

2006

416

27

235

476

1

535

0

Jamal Anderson

1998

410

26

237

563

2

356

1

James Wilder

1984

407

26

225

351

0

828

1

Eric Dickerson

1986

404

26

220

1061

3

1531

3

Eddie George

2000

403

27

235

1360

4

1102

2

Averages

408

26.4

230.4

762.2

2

870.4

1.4

Derrick Henry

2021

TBD

27

247

1182

3

TBD

TBD

Henry remains in the very same age variety as the other running backs when they had the most significant work of their professions. He is at the greater end of profession mileage when the season took place.

None of these people are little running backs. At 247 pounds, Henry is the heaviest of the lot. His size might make him much better geared up to manage the wear and tear built up playing running back.

The best-case circumstance for the Titans, because Henry is under agreement through the 2023 season with $12 million and $12.5 million incomes in 2022 and 2023, would be for him to be an outlier like Eric Dickerson. Dickerson was 2nd in the NFL in hurrying throughout a strike-shortened 1987 season. He won his last hurrying title in 1988, the 2nd year after his heaviest work. Dickerson’s last 1,000-yard season was the list below year in 1989.

Henry rapidly decreasing in the future if his historic use continues for the rest of this season would not be unexpected because running backs have a much shorter life span than other positions.

He’ll likely need to show to be superhuman to get an agreement of any repercussion after his present offer ends.

It’s still early however Henry is balancing practically a lawn less per hurrying effort this season at 4.5 than in 2015 when his 5.4 average was 4th in the NFL amongst running backs. As the hurrying champ in 2019 and 2020, Henry was 3rd amongst running backs with 5.2 backyards per bring (minimum 200 hurrying efforts) throughout this period.

Henry dealing with stacked protective fronts regularly this season might be a contributing aspect. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, 41.55 percent of Henry’s brings are with 8 or more protectors in package. It was 27.78 percent last season and 35.64 percent in 2019.

However, Henry’s isn’t faring also in some innovative running back metrics this season as previously. For example, Henry is balancing a rather pedestrian (by his previous requirements) 0.15 rush backyards over anticipated per effort, according to Next Gen Stats. He led the NFL in 2019 with 1.06 hurrying backyards over anticipated per effort and enhanced in 2015 to 1.11 backyards while ranking 5th.

Nonetheless, Henry is on track to the defy the chances by ending up being the very first gamer who had a 2,000-yard hurrying season to strike the 1,500-yard mark in the list below year. Barry Sanders has the most with 1,491 hurrying backyards in 1998 prior to he quickly retired after the season at 30. Whether Henry is the supreme abnormality at running back stays to be seen.



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