NFL Week 1 picks: Chiefs win thriller over Lions, Patriots shock Eagles, Steelers stun favored 49ers

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to 11th year of my NFL choices. I’ve lastly outlived Tom Brady. 

I truthfully didn’t believe he was ever going to retire, and even when he revealed his retirement previously this year, I still believed he was going to return at some time, today, I’m beginning to believe that’s not going to occur. 

I imply, absolutely nothing states “I’m retired” more than flirting with Kim Kardashian at a celebration in the Hamptons. 

I’m thinking my welcome to the celebration got lost in the mail, which is most likely for the very best, due to the fact that I’m 61% sure that I’m still prohibited from the Hamptons. 

Anyway, I have no concept why I’m even speaking about Brady or the Hamptons, due to the fact that there are way more vital things to discuss today like who I’m selecting to win the Super Bowl this year. 

So who am I going to choose?

That’s a fantastic concern and you can discover the response by click on this link to see my forecasts for the whole 2023 NFL season. If you click over, you’ll see my last record forecasts for all 32 groups plus who I’m selecting to make the playoffs and win the Super Bowl.

Alright, let’s get to the Week 1 choices. 

Actually, prior to we get to the Week 1 choices, I have great news for the 9 of you who emailed in and required to CBS that I do more this season. Not just will I be composing this weekly choices column, however I’ll likewise be podcasting a lot this year. As a matter of reality, you ought to proceed and circle every Sunday and Tuesday on your calendar from now up until February, since that’s when I’ll be signing up with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson on the Pick Six Podcast (Click here to inspect it out). On Sundays, we’ll be doing a wrap-up program. As for Tuesdays, we’ll be scaring Pete Prisco on a program that will be focused around his weekly power rankings. 

Alright, I believe that suffices self-promotion in the meantime, let’s get to the choices. 

NFL Week 1 Picks

Detroit at Kansas City

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

When the NFL launched the 2023 schedule back in May, I was so stunned that the Lions were selected for the opener that I spit oat milk out of my nose and the gross part is that I do not even consume oat milk. I still do not understand how that took place. I ought to most likely get that inspected. 

When it pertains to Kansas City’s challenger for this video game, the NFL had a great deal of alternatives — like the Bengals, Eagles, Bills or Chargers, among others — however they opted for the Lions, who may wish to alter their name to the Lambs for this video game, due to the fact that they seem like a sacrificial lamb here. 

The issue for Detroit is that the Chiefs never ever lose in Week 1. If you offer Andy Reid additional time to get ready for a video game, he is generally going to win. Over the previous 8 years, Reid has actually gone 8-0 in openers and the Chiefs have actually balanced 36.4 points per video game in those 8 wins. Also, Patrick Mahomes may be the most unstoppable QB on earth when playing in an opener. I imply, he’s constantly unstoppable, however he’s additional unstoppable in Week 1. 

Mahomes has actually begun 5 openers in his profession and he’s 5-0 in those video games with the Chiefs, scoring approximately 37.8 points per win. I would anticipate Kansas City to score 37.8 points on Sunday, however I do not think in decimals, so I’m going to opt for a round number. 

Although I’m fawning all over the Chiefs, I do believe that the Chris Jones scenario might offer the Lions an opportunity to manage the upset. Jones is the Chiefs’ finest protective gamer and at this moment, there are just 2 alternatives for Thursday: 

  • He gets an offer finished with the group and plays. 
  • He does not get an offer done and he misses out on the video game. 

If the very first choice occurs, I believe he’ll be rusty and mainly inefficient. If the 2nd choice occurs, the Chiefs will be missing their finest protective gamer, which might lead the way for the Lions offense to score a great deal of points. I believe what I’m attempting to state here is that the opener is going to develop into a shootout. 

If the Lions manage the upset in this video game, the group requires to commemorate by sending out everybody in Detroit a complimentary Axel Foley coat. 

I do not believe the upset is going to occur, however I’m going to plant the seed simply in case it does. 

The choice: Chiefs 33-30 over Lions

Although I enjoy my choice for this video game, I recommend you likewise checked out R.J. White’s choice due to the fact that he in some way appears to nail every Lions video game. The male is on an outrageous 53-35-2 (+1462) run versus the spread on his last 90 choices in video games including Detroit. White’s choice is offered over at SportsLine and you can inspect it out here.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

For some factor, every Bengals season appears to begin the exact same method: Joe Burrow misses out on all of training school, then appears to the opener looking a little rusty, and after that the Bengals continue to play the wildest video game of Week 1 which video game is constantly chosen by precisely 3 points. 

If may seem like I’m making this all up, however I swear, I’m not. Let’s do a fast refresher: 

  • 2020: Burrow’s very first preseason with the group was interrupted throughout his novice year due to COVID. In Week 1, the Bengals dealt with the Chargers and they wound up losing 16-13 in a wild video game that wasn’t finished up till Cincinnati missed out on a 31-yard basket with 7 seconds left. 
  • 2021: In his 2nd year, Burrow wound up missing out on the preseason so he might rehab the ACL tear that he suffered as a novice. Not just did Burrow make it back for the opener, however he led the Bengals to a wild 27-24 overtime win over the Vikings. A huge factor the Bengals won is due to the fact that Dalvin Cook lost a fumble in overtime. Cook just lost 2 FUMBLES the whole season, and among them was available in overtime of that video game. 
  • 2022: Once once again, Burrow missed out on the majority of training school, and this time, it was because of his appendix, which in fact burst in July 2022. Despite having his appendix burst inside his body, Burrow was still on the field for the Bengals’ opener versus the Steelers, and this video game may have been the wildest among all for him. The Bengals appeared like they were going to win after scoring a TD with 2 seconds left, however a bad breeze by their BACKUP long snapper caused an errant additional point, which sent out the video game to OT where the Steelers would win 23-20. 

That is 3 insane video games all chosen by 3 points. I do not require to understand anything about the Browns or Bengals. I simply require to understand that Burrow missed out on the whole preseason which anytime that occurs, insaneness occurs in the opener.

Usually, I would immediately choose versus the Browns due to the fact that they never ever win in Week 1, however they ended their 18-year winless streak last season. On the Bengals’ end, I am selecting them to win the Super Bowl this season, however I am not selecting them to win this video game. Burrow is 1-4 versus the Browns and he constantly appears to resist them, so I’m going to roll with Cleveland here. 

The choice: Browns 26-23 over Bengals.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

I’m beginning to believe that somebody in the NFL scheduling department dislikes the 49ers. For the THIRD STRAIGHT year, the 49ers will be flying midway throughout the nation to play their opener, and if in 2015 was any sign, this might be an awful journey. If you require a refresher on in 2015, the 49ers got beat in Chicago on what may have been the rainiest day in NFL history. Trey Lance most likely still has headaches about that video game, which may be why he didn’t wind up exercising in San Francisco. 

This year the 49ers get an even worse journey, due to the fact that they need to fly to Pittsburgh to deal with a Steelers group that in fact compares quite well with them. For one, if the 49ers have one weak point on offense, it’s their offending line. Yes, they have among the very best lineman in the league in Trent Williams, however after that, things get dicey and you can’t actually manage dicey when you’re taking on the Steelers defense. 

The last time we saw the 49ers offending line, they were getting annihilated in the NFC title video game versus the Eagles. The 49ers got batter so bad that they lacked quarterbacks. I’m not stating that’s going to occur on Sunday, however I will state that T.J. Watt is the last person I would wish to deal with if I were simply 6 months eliminated from significant elbow surgical treatment. If Brock Purdy gets drilled a couple of times by the Steelers defense, he might begin to despair in his line, which might trigger his self-confidence to take a hit. 

Although the 49ers offending line is going to need to handle Watt, there’s an extremely genuine possibility that the Steelers offending line will not need to handle Nick Bosa. The ruling protective gamer of the year held out all of training school and it’s uncertain if he’s going to play. Of course, even if he does play, there’s no warranty he’ll work considering that he hasn’t played arranged football in 3 months. 

The Steelers have actually mastered the art of the Week 1 upset over the previous couple of years. They beat the Bills in 2021 and followed that up with a win over the Bengals in 2022, and now, I believe they’re going include another upset to the list with a win over the 49ers in 2023. 

The choice: Steelers 26-23 over 49ers

Philadelphia at New England

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

On paper, the Eagles are certainly the much better group in this video game, however I stopped utilizing paper 5 years earlier, so I will be tossing that element out the window. The just thing I appreciate in this video game is Bill Belichick. Is he going to exist? If the response is yes, then I’m selecting the Patriots. 

Sure, Belichick totally lost his mind in 2015 when he chose to let Matt Patricia call offensive plays, however regardless of that, I still like the benefit that he provides the Patriots in this video game. This week will mark the very first time that Jalen Hurts is dealing with the Patriots and let me simply state that there is absolutely nothing harder for a quarterback than dealing with a Belichick defense for the very first time. 

Belichick will toss whatever however the kitchen area sink at a quarterback, just to reverse and toss the kitchen area sink anyhow. The Patriots offense has a great deal of enigma heading into this video game, however the defense does not and I believe Belichick will determine a method to slow the Eagles down. 

Also, let’s not forget that Patricia is no longer calling offending plays, so New England’s offense ought to be at least rather practical this year now that Bill O’Brien supervises. Actually, I take that back, I simply checked out the tweet listed below and it appears that Belichick is still calling the shots which he has actually totally lost his marbles on the offending side of the ball. 

I’m thinking he does not wish to expose his QB scenario heading into the opener due to the fact that his strategy is to sign Tom Brady. 

Speaking of Brady, the Patriots are commemorating Tom Brady Appreciation Day on Sunday and there’s no other way I’m selecting versus them on Tom Brady Appreciation Day.  

The choice: Patriots 22-19 over Eagles

Buffalo at N.Y. Jets 

Monday, 8:15 p.m ET (ESPN)

When I initially took a seat to choose this video game, I was 81% sure that I was going to choose the Bills to win, however then I chose to binge-watch “Hard Knocks” over the weekend, and now, not just did I alter my mind about who I’m selecting, however I’m unsure I’m ever going to have the ability to choose versus the Jets once again. Honestly, I ought to most likely stop seeing “Hard Knocks” due to the fact that the exact same thing occurs every year: HBO in some way persuades me into believing that the “Hard Knocks” group is going to be great and after that I respond by selecting them to win every video game for the whole season. 

The reveal made Aaron Rodgers appear like among the most pleasant individuals on earth, which ought to suffice by itself to win HBO 3 Emmys. Rodgers can be a questionable figure sometimes: He dislikes pharmaceutical business, he might or might not be a 9/11 truther and he invested half his offseason considering life in a dark space, however none of that is going to matter to Jets fans if he brings a Super Bowl to New York and it seems like there’s an extremely genuine possibility that might occur. 

Rodgers is at his finest when he’s having fun with a chip on his shoulder and he appears to have a huge chip there today after getting discarded by the Packers. Rodgers has an opportunity to make a substantial declaration in Week 1 and I believe he’s going to do that by sculpting up a Bills defense that’s not going to have Von Miller. I do not rely on the Jets offending line and if Miller was playing today, I may feel in a different way about this video game, however he’s not, so I’m taking New York. 

The choice: Jets 27-20 over Bills

NFL Week 1 choices: All the rest

Falcons 23-16 over Panthers
Jaguars 27-17 over Colts
Vikings 30-20 over Buccaneers
Titans 20-17 over Saints
Commanders 24-13 over Cardinals
Ravens 31-20 over Texans
Packers 19-16 over Bears
Broncos 23-20 over Raiders
Chargers 34-27 over Dolphins
Seahawks 24-17 over Rams
Cowboys 27-23 over Giants

Last Week 

Best choice: The “best pick” area is normally the part where I extol my finest choice from the preceding week, however considering that there weren’t any regular-season video games recently, that implies there’s no finest choice for this area. That being stated, if your only idea today is, “Wow, I wish I could read this guy every day,” you remain in luck, due to the fact that you can! I likewise compose the day-to-day NFL newsletter here at and you can subscribe by click on this link and entering your e-mail address, and do not be self-centered, do not hesitate to register everybody you understand. You can likewise follow me on the media platform previously called Twitter here.  

Worst choice: Although I’ll have lots of “worst picks” for this area beginning next week, I have absolutely nothing for you today. Actually, wait, yes I do. Since this is the worst choice area, this is the best time to inform you about my worst choice from the offseason: I flew all the method to New Zealand to enjoy the U.S. Women play in the quarterfinal of the World Cup, other than they didn’t make it to the quarterfinal, so the strategy exploded in my face. The ethical of the story here is that you ought to never ever prepare a whole journey around an occasion where your group can be knocked out prior to you even reach your location. That’s my method of informing Browns fans not to book anything in Las Vegas right now for the Super Bowl. 

Final 2022 choices record (consisting of playoffs)

Straight-up:  174-109-1 
Against the spread:  136-139-9

You can discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s refraining from doing among those things, he’s most likely at a celebration in the Hamptons flirting with Kim Kardashian.

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