NFL Week 13 picks: Steelers shock Ravens to stay alive in AFC North race, Patriots upset Bills on Monday night

I’m uncertain just how much food I consumed over Thanksgiving Weekend, however I’m quite sure I acquired approximately 17 pounds, which is type of a coincidence, due to the fact that I believe that’s likewise the number of choices I got incorrect in Week 12. Sure, there weren’t even 17 video games played and the mathematics does not build up at all, however when you consume turkey for 5 meals a day for 5 straight days, absolutely nothing makes good sense. 

The just great news to come out of the weekend for me is that I didn’t capture COVID, however regrettably, the exact same can’t be stated for the Cowboys. The company is handling a mini-COVID break out, which is going to keep Mike McCarthy from training today after he evaluated favorable. 

Apparently, COVID pursued everybody over Thanksgiving, due to the fact that there are going to be a great deal of crucial gamers missing out on from a great deal of groups today. 

If my choices are bad today, I blame COVID. 

Alright, let’s get to the Week 13 choices. 

Actually, prior to we get to the choices, here’s a fast tip that you can take a look at the weekly choices from every NFL professional by click on this link. If you do not click over, I will not be angered. However, I will be angered if you do not register for’s NFL newsletter, which I’m in charge of. 

If you do register, it resembles an early Christmas present for both people: I get more sign-ups and you get an e-mail from me 5 days each week, which indicates registering is truly like 5 presents in one. If you wish to subscribe, all you need to do is click on this link and enter your e-mail address. I guarantee not to spam you and I guarantee not to send you photos of my feline.

Also, I would like you people to understand that I taped a podcast on Monday night with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson and we invested 45 extremely amusing minutes discussing whether the Seahawks must think of blowing things up and beginning over. Russell Wilson desires out. Pete Carroll is on the incorrect side of 70. And it simply seems like it may be time for the proceed to the next chapter. If you wish to listen, and you certainly should, you can do that listed below. 

Alright, let’s get to the choices. 

NFL Week 13 Picks

L.A. Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati (7-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals

We’re 13 weeks into the season and I need to confess, I still have no concept what to make from the Chargers. Every time you believe the Chargers will turn the corner and end up being a Super Bowl competitor, they head out and fail on their face. If they had actually beaten the Broncos on Sunday, they would have remained in top place heading into Week 13, however rather, they got ashamed. I likewise got ashamed due to the fact that I chose them to win. 

The Chargers began the season 4-1, however they’re simply 2-4 ever since. I’m not precisely sure why the Chargers have actually broken down over the previous couple of weeks, however my primary working theory is that it’s due to the fact that they’re the Chargers and breaking down is what they do. 

One factor they’re breaking down is due to the fact that they can’t stop the run. I now understand why Chargers coach Brandon Staley goes all out all the time on 4th down and it’s plainly due to the fact that he wishes to do whatever possible to ensure his defense does not ever get on the field, due to the fact that if they’re on the field, that indicates that Chargers are most likely going to lose. Through 12 weeks, the Chargers are giving up 145.3 hurrying lawns per video game, which is extremely bad when you think about that no other group in the NFL is even giving up 136 lawns per video game. When it comes to having a bad run defense, the Chargers are the very best in the NFL, other than being the very best here in fact indicates you’re the worst, so it’s not truly something you wish to extol. 

If the Bengals are clever, they’ll simply offer the ball to Joe Mixon 47 times in this video game. I truly wish to choose the Bengals here…. However, I am somewhat anxious about selecting versus the Chargers which’s due to the fact that this is an odd-numbered week and the Chargers never ever lose in odd-numbered weeks. For some factor, they forget how to play football throughout even-numbered weeks, however throughout odd numbered-weeks, they’re the 1985 Bears. 

In odd week video games this season, the Chargers are 5-0 while balancing 33.0 points per video game. However, in even week video games, they’re 1-5 with approximately 18 points per video game. It’s like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Actually, I take that back, it’s more like the “Fast and the Furious” films. As somebody who has actually seen every “Fast and the Furious” film a minimum of 19 times, I can inform you for a truth that all the odd-numbered films are great and all the even-numbered ones are terrible, which generally summarize the Chargers whole 2021 season up until now. I’m beginning to believe the Chargers may wish to have a “Fast and the Furious” marathon or something if they wish to end this even-number week curse. By the method, if you have actually never ever seen a “Fast and Furious” film, I advise beginning with the 5th one due to the fact that it’s the just one I’m in. 

The Chargers are 5-0 in odd weeks, the Bengals are presently the fifth-seed in the AFC playoffs and I remained in “Fast Five.” I’m beginning to seem like 5 is a style here, so I’m going to take the Bengals by 5 in a video game that’s fittingly being used December 5. 

The choice: Bengals 31-26 over Chargers. 

Which NFL choices can you make with self-confidence, and which Super Bowl competitor decreases hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which groups win and cover the spread, all from a tested computer system design that has actually returned practically $7,100 given that its beginning.

Washington (5-6) at Las Vegas (6-5)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders

We’re 13 weeks into the season and I need to confess, I still have no concept what I’m doing when it pertains to selecting Washington’s video games. They’ve played 11 video games therefore far, I’m 3-8 selecting those video games. When it pertains to selecting Washington video games, it does not matter who they’re playing, it does not matter who’s preferred to win, no matter what I choose, the reverse is going to occur. if I choose them to win, they’re going to lose. If I choose them to lose they’re going to win. However, I have a trump card today which weapon is a magic coin. 

Before the 2021 season began, somebody on Reddit chose to replicate the Raiders whole season by turning a coin to identify the winner of each video game and all I need to state is that this coin is much better at forecasting video games than I am. Through 12 weeks, the coin is a best 11-0 forecasting Raiders’ video games. 

My individual record selecting Raiders’ video games this year is 5-6, so certainly I’m in no position to be questioning what the coin states and the coin states the Raiders are going to win. The coin chose the Raiders to beat the Cowboys and now it is selecting the Raiders to beat Washington. 

That being stated, if the Raiders do not win, we can proceed and blame me. When it pertains to selecting Washington video games, I’m often incorrect so there’s a 50% opportunity that I’m going to jinx the wonderful coin out of presence by selecting the Raiders here. 

For the record, if the coin didn’t exist, I most likely would still choose the Raiders here. They’re balancing 296.5 lawns through the air this year, which is the 2nd most in the NFL and they’ll be taking on a Washington defense that can’t stop the pass. Also, Washington is 0-4 versus AFC groups this year and I’m beginning to believe they simply can’t beat any group from that conference. 

If the Raiders do win and coin winds up being ideal once again, they must truly offer some major idea about potentially employing the coin as their next coach. 

The choice: Raiders 30-23 over Washington. All hail the coin. 

Baltimore (8-3) at Pittsburgh (5-5-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens

I’ll be sincere here, I have no concept what to make from this video game. On one hand, you have the Steelers, who I’m quite sure quit about midway through the 3rd quarter versus the Bengals on Sunday. The Steelers utilized to have a vaunted defense, however I do not believe it certifies as vaunted any longer after quiting 41 points in EACH of the previous 2 weeks.  

As for the Ravens, they’re entering into Sunday after a week where Lamar Jackson played probably the worst video game of his profession. Jackson was downright terrible versus the Browns, however the Ravens were still able to win due to the fact that the Browns chose to begin a quarterback who generally has the exact same quantity of injuries as somebody who was simply struck by a bus. The just thing that’s been even worse than the Steelers defense over the previous couple of weeks is the Ravens offense. 

Over their previous 3 video games, the Ravens have actually balanced simply 14 points per video game. The Ravens offense has actually gradually been becoming worse given that Week 10 when Baltimore got burnt out by the Dolphins, who chose to blitz Lamar on almost every play. That does not suggest the Steelers are going to do that, however it does suggest that Mike Tomlin will most likely execute a few of that into his protective tactical plan. 

At 5-5-1, the Steelers season generally hangs in the balance today. If they lose, they’re certainly not winning the AFC North and they’re most likely not making the playoffs. I do not like to choose versus desperate groups, particularly when they’re dipping into house versus a department competitor. The Steelers are among just 2 groups in the NFL that Lamar Jackson does not have a winning record versus — he’s 1-1 — and I do not believe that’s going to alter after this week. 

The choice: Steelers 19-16 over Ravens. 

New England (8-4) at Buffalo (7-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills

Based on what I learn about Bills fans, there’s a 97% opportunity that this Monday is going to decrease as the top-selling day ever in the history of the folding table market. This is among the most significant routine season video games that the Bills have actually ever hosted and you can wager that Bills fans are going to react properly by investing their day leaping through folding tables that have actually been set on fire. 

Not just will initially position in the AFC East be on the line in this video game, however this will likewise mark the very first time in franchise history that the Bills have actually hosted a Monday night video game in the month of December. I’m thinking the Bills didn’t get any prior to this due to the fact that the NFL most likely presumed that people could not endure outdoors for more than 9 seconds throughout a December night in Buffalo, which is a reasonable presumption. 

These 2 groups fulfilled on a December Monday night in New England in 2015 and the Bills wound up totally damaging the Patriots 38-9, which in hindsight may have been a bad concept, due to the fact that now, I seem like Bill Belichick would enjoy absolutely nothing more than to absolutely humiliate the Bills on nationwide tv, and if anybody can absolutely humiliate the Bills, it’s Belichick. The male has actually generally made a profession out of humiliating the Bills. 

Over the previous 15 years, Belichick is 25-5 versus Buffalo. Although the Patriots got swept in 2015, they still practically managed an upset in their very first conference with the Bills, which was a 24-21 Buffalo win. Even in the middle of a big restore, Belichick practically beat the Bills. When the Patriots went on their huge totally free representative costs spree throughout the offseason, I’m 99% sure that every relocation they made was finished with the sole function of making sure that they would have the ability to ruin the Bills this year. 

I do not believe they’re going to ruin the Bills on Monday night, however I do believe Belichick is going to leave Buffalo with a win. 

The choice: Patriots 23-20 over Bills. 

NFL Week 13 choices: All the rest

Cowboys 24-17 over Saints
Buccaneers 34-24 over Falcons
Cardinals 27-17 over Bears
Vikings 23-16 over Lions
Dolphins 30-20 over Giants
Eagles 27-20 over Jets
Colts 31-17 over Texans
Rams 27-16 over Jaguars
49ers 31-24 over Seahawks
Chiefs 30-17 over Broncos

BYES: Browns, Titans, Packers, Panthers

Last Week

Best choice: Last week, I anticipated that the Packers would disturb the Rams in Green Bay and think what took place? The Packers disturb the Rams in Green Bay, which was the most foreseeable video game ever. If countless years of human civilization has actually taught us something, it’s that individuals who do not reside in winter hate winter. Also, individuals who reside in California dislike taking a trip to any location that’s not California. When you integrate those 2 things with the reality that Matthew Stafford has actually all of a sudden become a pick-six maker, there was no other way the Rams were winning. If you’re questioning how bad the pick-sixes have actually gotten with Stafford, he now has the longest pick-six streak of any quarterback given that 2013 and he’s likewise now tossed the sixth-most choice-sixes in NFL history (26). 

Worst pick: I was thinking of taking a getaway to Florida next year, however not now, due to the fact that I DISLIKE FLORIDA after what took place to me in Week 12. There are 3 NFL groups situated in Florida and I whiffed on each and every single among their video games. I chose the Colts to beat the Buccaneers. I chose the Jaguars to beat the Falcons and I chose the Panthers to beat the Dolphins. None of those things took place. My choices were so bad that I will not be amazed if I get prohibited from the whole state for the rest of my life. My 19-month old child will most likely be unfortunate that we’ll never ever get to go to Disney World, however when she hears how bad my choices were, she’ll comprehend. 

Finally, if you people have actually ever questioned which groups I’m in fact proficient at selecting, here’s a glance: 

Teams I’m 9-2 selecting this year: Texans, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Steelers (8-2-1), Colts (10-2)
Longest present streak of selecting a group’s video games properly: Steelers (8-0-1 given that Week 3)

Teams I’ve been the worst at selecting this year:  Saints (3-8), Washington (3-8). 
Longest active streak of selecting a group’s video games incorrect:  Broncos (0-6 given that Week 6 after going 5-0 selecting their video games to begin the season)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 12: 7-8 (0-3 selecting Florida groups, 7-5 selecting everybody else)
SU total:  108-71-1

Against the spread in Week 12:  6-9
ATS overall: 87-90-3 

Exact score forecasts:  3
Exact rating, incorrect winner:  2

You can discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s refraining from doing among those things, he’s most likely viewing Fast Five for the 47th time today. 

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