NFL Week 14 picks: Bills shock Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, Cardinals roll past Rams in NFC West showdown

In an 2021 NFL season filled with weaves, we lastly got our greatest twist of the year in Week 13: THE DETROIT LIONS WEREN’T THE FIRST STRING REMOVED FROM PLAYOFF CONTENTION. 

If you would have asked me at any point over the previous 6 weeks who the first string to get knocked out of the playoff race would be, I would’ve wager my very first born upon the the Lions, and I need to state, it’s a good idea I didn’t wager that, since I’m quite sure my spouse would have eliminated me for losing our kid in a bet. 

As things stand, the Lions are formally still alive in the playoff race after beating the Vikings on Sunday, however one group is no longer alive which group is the Houston Texans. Houston, you have an issue and your issue is that your football group is awful. 

I believe I can state with 100% self-confidence that I will not be choosing the Texans to win a video game for the remainder of the season, which indicates I’ve currently ruined among my choices for Week 14, because now you understand that I’m choosing the Texans to lose to the Seahawks. I do not wish to ruin any longer of my choices, so let’s get the Week 14 choices began today. 

Actually, prior to we get to the choices, here’s a fast tip that you can take a look at the weekly choices from every NFL specialist by click on this link. If you do not click over, I will not be upset. However, I will be upset if you do not register for’s NFL newsletter, which I drain 4 days each week. I likewise have a newsletter about what it resembles to compose newsletters, however I will not ask you to sign up for that a person.

As for the football newsletter, if you wish to subscribe, all you need to do is click on this link and enter your e-mail address. It takes 8.6 seconds to register and if you’re questioning how I understand that, it’s since I got tired and timed it as soon as. One thing that’s not uninteresting is the podcast that I taped on Monday night with my insane partners Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. We invested 45 extremely amusing minutes discussing who’s going win the AFC East following New England’s win over Buffalo. We likewise discussed the reality that the Patriots won a video game regardless of TOSSING SIMPLY 3 PASSES. If you wish to listen, and you absolutely should, you can do that listed below. 

Alright, I believe that’s all the self-promotion I have for the week. Let’s get to the choices. 

NFL Week 14 Picks

Pittsburgh (6-5-1) at Minnesota (5-7)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network/Amazon)

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings

I’ll be truthful, if you intend on enjoying this video game on Thursday, you most likely do not even require to begin enjoying it till the 4th quarter which’s since all of us understand how the very first 3 quarters are going to play out. As I composed previously this season, every Vikings video game goes the exact same method weekly: They dive out to an early lead just to blow the lead, however then they normally get the lead back prior to blowing it once again. Half the time, this ends with them losing, however the other half of the time it ends with them winning, that makes their video games constantly amusing, however almost difficult to anticipate.

And today, it’s specifically difficult to anticipate what Minnesota’s going to do since the Vikings are the chuckling stock of the whole NFL after losing to the Lions on Sunday. I have no concept if the group is going to quit on Mike Zimmer and lose by 40 or if he’s going to have the ability to talk them off the ledge. 

If Zimmer’s clever, he’ll offer one brief speech today and it will go something like this, “Guys, we get to play the only other team in the NFL this year that played the Lions and couldn’t beat them, so we actually might have a chance to win this game.”

Although the Vikings loss to Detroit was awkward, the Steelers most likely aren’t making fun of them which’s since THEY ALSO nearly lost to the Lions. If the Lions had not missed out on an overtime basket back in Week 10, they would have beaten the Steelers, however they did miss out on, so they wound up with a tie. 

I seem like the NFL ought to truly welcome the reality that this video game includes the just 2 groups to play the Lions this year and not win. For one, they ought to let a real lion deal with the coin toss. I have no concept if that’s safe or not, however it would absolutely be amusing. 

Anyway, both the Steelers and Vikings defenses have in fact been remarkably bad this year. There are just 6 groups in the NFL quiting more than 130 lawns per video game on the ground and the Vikings and Steelers are 2 of those groups, so I seem like this video game is going to boil down to which offense can make the most of the other group’s defense

The reality that the Vikings have a bad rush defense is excellent news for Big Ben, since it indicates the Steelers ought to be running the ball a lot and I need to believe that’s what he desires, since there’s a great chance he’s hardly going to be practical playing on 3 days rest. The reality that the Steelers have a bad rush defense is excellent news for the Vikings, since it indicates they ought to be running a lot in this video game, which indicates it will not remain in the hands of Kirk Cousins. Look, I’m not a Kirk Cousins hater, however I will state that he’s absolutely the last man you wish to count on in a prime-time video game. Remember how bad Andy Dalton utilized to be in prime-time television? Well, Cousins is even worse. In his previous 5 prime-time begins alone, Cousins is 1-4 and among those losses came versus a Cowboys group led by Cooper Rush previously this year.

This video game seems like a coin flip, however there is something that has me leaning Minnesota: The Steelers are 0-3 versus the spread in video games versus NFC North groups this year and they have not been better straight-up (1-1-1). I have not missed out on a Steelers choice given that Week 3 and I’ll be putting that streak on the line by not taking them to win on Thursday night. 

The choice: Vikings 23-20 over Steelers

Baltimore (8-4) at Cleveland (6-6)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens

If it seems like you simply saw these 2 groups play, that’s since you did. Someone in the NFL scheduling department plainly got a little lazy since this video game will mark the 2nd time in 3 weeks that these 2 groups have actually fulfilled (Week 12 and Week 14). I suggest, I’m quite sure I still have some remaining Thanksgiving turkey in my fridge that remained in there the last time they played, which advises me, I ought to most likely go examine that since there is a rather undesirable smell originating from my refrigerator. 

Speaking of the NFL scheduling department, I seem like somebody there should truly dislike the Ravens since they are absolutely getting the brief end of the stick here. The Browns have actually essentially had 3 weeks to get ready for Baltimore while the Ravens will simply get a couple of days. 

How are the Browns getting 3 weeks you ask? Well, this is their 2nd video game in a row versus Baltimore. They played the Ravens in Week 12, then had a bye in Week 13 and will now be playing them once again in Week 14, which indicates the Browns have actually essentially been prepping for Baltimore given that the day after their Week 11 video game ended, which was on Nov. 22.

This is the very first time in thirty years that a group has actually gotten to play 2 straight video games versus the exact same group. The last time it took place, the Ravens didn’t even exist, and for that matter, neither did Baker Mayfield which’s since he wasn’t even born yet. 

I’m not exactly sure what the Browns did throughout their bye week, however I’m thinking they tossed Mayfield in an ice bath and let him sit there for 12 straight days. There’s nobody in the NFL who required a week off more than Mayfield, who is handling a lot of injuries that if I didn’t understand any much better, I would have though he got in an auto accident with a tractor. 

The something about this video game is that it’s a dream match for anybody who dislikes the forward pass. In the contemporary NFL, standard knowledge states that you require to be able to toss the ball forward to win, however these 2 groups have actually both tossed standard knowledge out the window this year. The Browns and the Ravens have 2 of the top-four hurrying attacks in the NFL and the insane part is that they have actually hurried for the EXACT exact same quantity of yardage this season (1,765). 

That being stated, I have no concept what either of these offenses are going to appear like today which’s since they have actually both been bad recently. As a matter of reality, it has actually been MORE THAN A MONTH given that either of these groups scored 20 points in a video game, so it type of seems like the first string to 20 is going to win and I’m going to state that group is going to be the Browns, however just since I believe the Ravens defense is going to have a hard time a bit in their very first video game without Marlon Humphrey. 

The choice: Browns 20-17 over Ravens

Dallas (8-4) at Washington (6-6) 

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys

I believe the NFL forgot that these 2 groups were playing today, since that’s the only method to discuss how an NFC East face-off got stuck in the early window on Sunday. For as long as I can keep in mind, the NFL has actually been requiring awful NFC East video games upon us in prime-time television, however the one time I wish to enjoy an NFC East video game in prime-time television, the league rather chooses to have it start at 1 p.m. and it will likely just be revealed to 3% of the nation, which indicates I’m going to have take my sibling’s DirecTV password. Just joking, I have my own. 

Does the NFL understand it’s enabled to bend video games? How are we stuck to Bears-Packers on “Sunday Night Football” today when THIS video game was readily available? I believe even Bears fans would rather enjoy this video game on Sunday night. 

Between the Browns getting 2 straight video games versus the Ravens and Washington-Dallas being at 1 p.m., it hasn’t been an excellent week for the NFL schedule maker. I’m believing that moving forward, the NFL ought to ask me to veterinarian the schedule prior to launching it every year. 

Anyway, if you would have asked me 5 weeks ago who I believed was going to win this video game, I most likely would’ve selected the Cowboys by 7 goals. I’m not exactly sure why you would have asked me about this video game at that time, however simply play along. After 8 weeks of play, Washington was 2-6 and it appeared like they were going to fight with the Giants for the title of worst group in the NFC East. As for the Cowboys, they were 6-1 after 8 weeks and they appeared like they were going to run away with the department, however then November took place. 

During that month, Washington went 3-0, making them the only NFC group to go unbeaten in November. Overall, Washington is now on a four-game winning streak, which is the longest in the NFC and the fourth-longest in the NFL. Usually, that would suffice to persuade me to choose them and I most likely would today if they weren’t dealing with Dak Prescott. 

If there’ s one group Dak has actually definitely owned in his profession, it’s Washington. Since his novice year, he’s 7-1 versus them and he’s won those 7 video games by approximately 13.7 points. And if you take a look at the something this Washington defense does not succeed, they can’t stop the pass. They’re quiting more than 263.9 lawns per video game through air this year, which is the third-worst number in the NFL. Dak may toss for 700 lawns. 

The choice: Cowboys 30-23 over Washington

Buffalo (7-5) at Tampa Bay (9-3)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m not exactly sure if the NFL has an equivalent of the Washington Generals constantly losing to the Harlem Globetrotters, however if they do, it’s most likely the Buffalo Bills versus Tom Brady. Over the course of Brady’s profession, he has actually dealt with the Bills 35 times and in those 35 video games, he’s gone 32-3, which is the most wins that any quarterback has versus another group in NFL history. 

The Bills media guide may state that the Pegula household owns the group, however in truth, all of us understand it’s Tom Brady. 

In theory, I ought to be all over the Buccaneers here. However, I’m awful with theories: I still do not comprehend string theory, I dropped off to sleep as soon as attempting to understand quantum theory and the only theory I rather comprehend is turmoil theory, which states the Bills ought to in fact have a possibility to win, or possibly it does not state that, I’m not exactly sure. Like I stated, I’m bad with theories. However, I do type of like the Bills here, even after enjoying them lose on Monday night. 

The one factor I like the Bills is since they’ve in fact been remarkably excellent versus Brady given that employing Sean McDermott in 2017. Although the Patriots went 6-0 versus the Bills because duration (2017-19), they were primarily winning since of Bill Belichick’s protective tactical plan, not since of Brady. In those 6 video games, Brady tossed more interceptions (5) than goals (4) while balancing simply 225.5 lawns per video game.

Belichick constantly determines a method to close down Buffalo’s offense and he did it once again on Monday. As for Brady, he constantly appears to resist McDermott’s defense and I’m anticipating that to continue today. 

The greatest benefit for the Bills entering into this video game is that the Tampa location is not anticipating 60 miles per hour windstorm force winds today, which indicates I believe the Bills offense may in fact illuminate the scoreboard after just scoring 10 points on Monday. There is absolutely a possibility the Bills get burnt out after imploding versus the Patriots, however I’m going to presume that’s not going to occur. 

The choice: Bills 30-27 over Buccaneers. 

L.A. Rams (8-4) at Arizona (10-2)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Latest Odds:

Arizona Cardinals

When 2 department competitors play each other for the 2nd time in a season, I normally toss the outcomes of the very first video game out the window, however I’m in a space that does not have any windows today, so I can’t do that, which is most likely for the very best, since I believe that very first video game offers us a little tip of what’s going to occur this time around. 

In that initially video game, the Rams could not stop Arizona’s hurrying attack, they could not stop Kyler Murray and now that I’m considering it, I do not truly believe they stopped anybody in a Cardinals uniform. Also, Matthew Stafford tossed an interception on the Rams’ 2nd belongings and the wheels fell off the wagon for Los Angeles after that. 

Since that loss to the Cardinals in Week 4, the Rams are 5-3, however there’s type of big catch there: They’re 5-0 versus groups that are presently under .500 and 0-3 versus groups that are .500 or much better. The 5 groups they have actually beaten given that Week 4 have a combined record of 13-46-1. 

If you have actually followed Stafford’s profession, you might have discovered that he often resists excellent groups and regrettably for him, the Cardinals are an excellent group. Also, when I state battle, I suggest he’s 9-70 versus groups with a winning record and he’s never ever beaten a group that’s at least 5 video games above .500 when he faces them. The Cardinals have a winning record and they’re at least 5 video games above .500, that makes this seem like a dreadful match for Stafford.  

The Cards have Kyler Murray back, they’re going to be at complete strength and I’m still not encouraged that Stafford has what it requires to beat an excellent group late in the season. In the very first conference in between these 2 groups, the Cards beat the Rams 37-20 and although I believe it will be a little more detailed this time around, I believe Arizona still wins… unless Kliff Kingsbury gives up midweek to take the training task at Oklahoma. However, Oklahoma has actually currently worked with a brand-new coach, so I’m going to go on and presume that’s not going to occur. 

The choice: Cardinals 37-27 over Rams

NFL Week 14 choices: All the rest

Titans 27-13 over Jaguars
Chiefs 31-20 over Raiders
Saints 20-16 over Jets
Falcons 24-17 over Panthers
Seahawks 24-16 over Texans
Broncos 34-20 over Lions
Bengals 27-24 over 49ers
Chargers 33-23 over Giants
Packers 30-20 over Bears

BYES: Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles

Last Week

Best choice: Last week, I forecasted that the Steelers would distress the Ravens and think what took place? The Steelers distress the Ravens. Now, did I understand that a Ben Roethlisberger retirement story was going to leakage out the night prior to the video game? Of course I did. That’s traditional Big Ben: You leakage out a retirement story and after that enjoy as it influences your group to a win. He does this a minimum of as soon as a season.

I will not be amazed at all if Ben leakages a story about Mike Tomlin potentially retiring in between now and Thursday night.

Worst choice: Last week, I actually invested 2 paragraphs discussing why you ought to never ever choose versus the Chargers in odd weeks and obviously, I do not understand what an odd number is, since I chose versus them anyhow although their video game versus the Bengals remained in Week 13. If you require a fast refresher, the Chargers are now 6-0 this season in odd numbered weeks and are balancing 34.3 points per video game. 

I’m not exactly sure if I’m enabled to do this, however I’m going to go on and pre-pick them for wins in both Week 15 and Week 17. 

Finally, if you men have actually ever questioned which groups I’m in fact proficient at choosing, here’s a glimpse: 

Teams I’m 10-2 choosing this year: Texans, Rams, Steelers (9-2-1), Colts (11-2)
Longest present streak of choosing a group’s video games properly: Steelers (9-0-1 given that Week 3)

Teams I’ve been the worst at choosing this year:  Washington (3-9), Saints (4-8). 
Longest active streak of choosing a group’s video games incorrect:  Panthers (0-3 over their previous 3 video games)

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 13: 10-4
SU general:  118-75-1

Against the spread in Week 13:  6-8
ATS overall: 93-98-3

Exact score forecasts:  3
Exact rating, incorrect winner:  2

You can discover John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s refraining from doing among those things, he’s most likely clearing out his fridge since something does odor, however it’s not the old turkey. 

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