Super Bowl wagering notes – Mahomes in unusual circumstance versus Eagles

After opening at choice ’em, the Philadelphia Eagles are now little favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII. It is on track to be among the tightest Super Bowl lines in the history of the video game. It would mark the very first time Patrick Mahomes is a postseason underdog in his profession.

Let’s dive into the history and patterns.

Chiefs’ and Eagles’ futures history

• The Chiefs were +650 to win the Super Bowl when chances were very first launched last February, however they was up to 11-1 going into the season, the longest chances they were at any point this season. When the routine season ended, the Chiefs were +340 favorites.

• The Chiefs are tracking to end up being the first string to get in the playoffs as the straight-out Super Bowl preferred and after that be an underdog in the Super Bowl because 2004. That year, the Eagles got in the playoffs as +500 favorites prior to losing in Super Bowl XXXIX as seven-point underdogs versus the New England Patriots.

• Meanwhile, the Eagles were 40-1 when chances opened, and they were as long as 50-1 prior to the A.J. Brown trade. They were 25-1 when the season began. That would make them the greatest preseason long shots to win the Super Bowl because 2017, the just other time the Eagles won the Super Bowl (40-1 preseason).

Season outcomes

• The Chiefs are 8-11 ATS this season. They are the 6th group to reach the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record. Four of the previous 5 lost the Super Bowl.

• The Chiefs’ 11 ATS losses are the most ever by a group going into the Super Bowl and their 8-11 ATS record is the second-worst portion going into the video game. Only the 1997 Packers (6-9-3 ATS) were even worse. That Packers group lost to the Denver Broncos as 11-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXII. Despite the bad ATS record, the Chiefs have actually gone 5-0 outright and ATS versus NFC groups this season.

• The Chiefs likewise had the greatest typical over/under in the NFL this season at 49.8. Unders were 11-8 in Chiefs video games, compared to overs going 10-9 in Eagles video games.

• As for the Eagles, they get in the Super Bowl at 10-9 ATS after covering back-to-back championship game. The Eagles are 9-3 ATS this season in Jalen Hurts begins when preferred by 8 points or less.

Everything you require to understand to wager Super Bowl LVII

Rare underdog function for Mahomes

• For the very first time in the Patrick Mahomes age, the Chiefs are most likely underdogs in a championship game. Last week, the Chiefs were underdogs early in the week versus the Cincinnati Bengals however closed as favorites.

• Mahomes’ 13 playoff begins without being an underdog is the longest streak by any quarterback to start his profession in the Super Bowl age. It’s likewise one shy of Peyton Manning’s record because period. It likewise would snap the Chiefs’ 15-game streak of being postseason favorites, which is the longest streak by any group because period.

• It would be simply the 10th time in Patrick Mahomes’ profession that he has actually been an underdog and the very first time in the playoffs. No quarterback in the Super Bowl age has actually made more begins to start his profession prior to his 10th profession video game as an underdog (94th profession start).

• Mahomes has actually likewise been really effective as an underdog. He is 6-3 outright as an underdog, connected with Jimmy Garoppolo (14-7) for the very best straight-out winning portion as an underdog in the Super Bowl age (minutes. 8 starts).

• He is likewise 7-1-1 ATS as an underdog, which is the very best ATS record by any QB as an underdog (minutes. 8 starts). The just ATS loss came the last time he was an underdog — Week 6 versus the Buffalo Bills.

Super Bowl history

• Through 56 Super Bowls, favorites and underdogs are an even 27-27-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. However, underdogs have actually had the upper hand just recently, going 8-7 straight-out and 10-5 ATS in the previous 15 Super Bowls.

• Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals lost however covered the 4.5-point spread versus the Los Angeles Rams.

• The previous 4 Super Bowls went under the overall. Unders are 28-26-1 all-time in the Super Bowl (omitting Super Bowl I).

• The line opened choice’em at Caesars Sportsbook in the past rapidly relocating to the Eagles preferred 16 minutes later on. There has actually never ever been a Super Bowl that closed choice’em. This would be the ninth Super Bowl to close with a line under a basket and the 5th to close under 2. The closest Super Bowl spread is one (Patriots vs. Seahawks in Super Bowl XLIX and Bengals vs. 49ers in Super Bowl XVI).

Rounds of unders

• The 2022 NFL postseason began with all 5 video games on Saturday and Sunday of Super Wild Card Weekend reviewing the overall. However, ever since, all 7 championship game have actually gone under the overall, consisting of all 4 divisional round video games and both championship game.

• The Eagles’ previous 6 championship game went under the overall. Four straight Eagles’ video games this season have actually gone under the overall, while 3 straight Chiefs video games have actually gone under the overall.

Super Bowl MVP history

• Jalen Hurts is the +125 preferred to win Super Bowl MVP, followed carefully by Patrick Mahomes at +130. This is the very first time both beginning quarterbacks have actually had chances of +150 or much shorter to win Super Bowl MVP in the previous 15 seasons. The just other time both quarterbacks gotten in with chances much shorter than +200 remained in 2020 (Patrick Mahomes: -105, Tom Brady: +190).

• Hurts looks for to be simply the 5th preferred to win Super Bowl MVP in the previous 15 seasons. The latest wagering favorites to win Super Bowl MVP are Patrick Mahomes (2019). Tom Brady (2014, 2016) and Aaron Rodgers (2010) likewise achieved the accomplishment just recently.

• Meanwhile, Mahomes has the quickest chances of any gamer on the underdog group in the last 20 Super Bowls. He is the 3rd gamer on the underdog group in the previous 20 seasons to be +200 or much shorter to win Super Bowl MVP. The previous 2 both won Super Bowl MVP (2020 Tom Brady was +190, 2011 Eli Manning was +200).

• Travis Kelce (10-1) has the quickest Super Bowl MVP chances by any tight end because 2014 (Rob Gronkowski: 8-1). Last year, Cooper Kupp won the Super Bowl MVP at 6-1, the quickest chances of any non-quarterback in the video game.

Notable props (since Jan. 31)

• Patrick Mahomes’ passing backyards prop is 285.5. His typical prop has actually been 294.4, while his typical pass backyards per video game is 303.7. He has actually reviewed his passing prop in 12 of 19 video games.

• His prop in Week 18 was 324.5, the greatest for any gamer in any video game this season, while it was 311.5 in the divisional round versus the Jacksonville Jaguars. Following his ankle injury, his prop closed at 282.5 in the AFC Championship Game.

• This is the very first time all season Mahomes’ passing goals prop sits at 1.5 (juiced -224 to the over). It had actually been 2.5 in every video game this season. He went under that mark in 5 of his previous 6 video games.

• Mahomes’ interception chances of -131 are likewise his second-shortest chances this season (-133 in Week 13 at Bengals).

• Jalen Hurts’ prop is at 245.5, somewhat greater than his season typical of 237.5 (average YPG: 233.9). In the NFC Championship Game, his prop closed at 251.5, his greatest mark all season. However, he ended up with a season-low 121 passing backyards.

• Hurts’ existing conclusions (21.5) and efforts (32.5) props are connected for his greatest all season.

• Miles Sanders’ hurrying props have actually been a roller rollercoaster over the last couple of weeks. In Week 17, his prop was 77.5 backyards, connected for his greatest mark all season. By the NFC Championship Game, it slipped to 50.5, connecting a season low. It has actually rebounded a bit today, leaping up 7 backyards to 57.5.

• Travis Kelce has the greatest getting prop in the video game at 76.5. He has actually reviewed his receptions and getting backyards props in both championship game.

• A.J. Brown’s prop is set at 71.5 getting backyards for a 3rd straight video game after publishing an overall of 50 backyards in his 2 championship game integrated. He had actually reviewed his prop in his previous 4 regular-season video games.

• DeVonta Smith has actually likewise gone under his getting backyards prop in both championship game. He reviewed his prop in his last 6 regular-season video games.

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Historic futures chances from SportsOddsHistory.com